Carbon budget calculator by country
Chart start:
end:
Renewables:
Renewable energy
Energy use from renewable sources can be shown on a carbon budget chart via the amount of CO2 that would have been emitted if the energy had been produced from fossil fuels.
One possible scenario is that energy from renewable sources continues to increase at the same rate as it has done over recent years (i.e. a linear extrapolation).
A second possible scenario is that energy from renewable sources continues to increase at the same annual percentage increase as it has done over recent years (i.e. an exponential extrapolation). Show less



Carbon budget calculator by country
This calculator
Carbon budgets
Carbon budgets
As fossil fuels are burned, the CO2 that is released gradually builds up in the atmosphere. This build-up of CO2 steadily raises the average global temperature.
So, in order to keep global warming within a particular limit e.g. 1.5°C, there is a limit to how much more CO2 can be dumped into the atmosphere. This limit is known as the carbon budget, or CO2 budget.
To stay within the carbon budget, CO2 emissions have to be reduced. This calculator shows how quickly CO2 emissions have to be reduced in selected countries in order to keep the global temperature rise within a specified limit.
Many people are suprised at how rapidly CO2 emissions need to be reduced in high-emission countries in order to comply with the commitments made in the Paris Agreement. Hide
Using the calculator
There are four sets of choices. The default choices can all be changed. Each time a choice is altered, the chart and the table of CO2 emissions are updated according to the choices made.
1. Choose the country.
2. Specify the temperature rise to stay within, and the level of certainty or uncertainty that will be accepted.
3. Specify the accounting methods: which CO2 emissions are included, and which are ignored. Some of these choices are highly contentious.
4. Select which pathways of emission reduction are calculated.
There are three compliant pathway options: the calculator generates pathways that reduce emissions fast enough to stay within the global warming limits and accounting choices.
There are two linear Net Zero options (2040 and 2050) and the calculator assesses whether or not these comply with the specified global warming limits and accounting choices. Hide  
1. Country
2. Global warming choices
(a) The limit to global warming: °C
(b) Confidence in meeting this limit:
These two choices give a global CO2 budget of 400 billion tonnes CO2 (50 tonnes CO2 per person). Show more
The consequences
These two choices give a global CO2 budget of 400 billion tonnes CO2 from the start of 2020, according to the scientific consensus reported by the IPCC (in the AR6 report - see notes).
This works out as 50 tonnes CO2 per person for the 8 billion world population. This is a lifetime limit.
Climate deaths: The adverse consequences of this increase in global temperatures include an estimated 130 million climate deaths globally, of which the UK will be responsible for 1.1 million climate deaths. Show less
3. Accounting choices
(a) or emissions from imports & exports.
(b) or emissions from aviation.
(c) or equity between nations, i.e. the provision specified in the Paris Agreement.
These five choices mean the CO2 budget of the UK will last 2.1 years. Show more
These five choices mean the UK's CO2 budget was used up in . Show more
The consequences
CO2 emissions in the UK from 2020 to 2023 can be estimated to total 33.5 tonnes CO2 per person (see notes).
This leaves a lifetime budget of 16.5 tonnes CO2 per person from the start of 2024.
At the latest estimated emission rate for the UK of 8.0 tonnes CO2 per person per year (for 2023), this will last 2.1 years.
The consequences
CO2 emissions in the UK from 2020 to 2023 can be estimated to total 33.5 tonnes CO2 per person (see notes).
This exceeds the CO2 budget per person, which ran out in .
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4. Select a pathway to display
A. Assess a pathway. The calculator assesses whether the chosen pathway is compliant with the CO2 budget.
Linear Net Zero 2050 (net emissions fall steadily to zero in 2050)
The pathway is not compliant with the CO2 budget, which is used up in 2026
Linear Net Zero 2040 (net emissions fall steadily to zero in 2040)
The pathway is within the CO2 budget.
B. Generate a pathway of CO2 emission reduction that is compliant with the CO2 budget:
Linear decline in emissions (emissions fall steadily to zero fast enough to comply with the CO2 budget)
Emissions must fall by % in the first year, and then the same amount each year, to zero in .
No compliant pathway is possible - the carbon budget was used up in .
Exponential decline in emissions (emissions fall exponentially, i.e. with a constant halving time, fast enough to comply with the CO2 budget)
Emissions must fall by % each year. Emissions never quite reach zero.
No compliant pathway is possible - the carbon budget was used up in .
Smoothed exponential decline in emissions (after an initial transition, emissions fall exponentially, i.e. with a constant halving time, fast enough to comply with the CO2 budget)
In the exponential part of the pathway, emissions must fall by % each year.
No compliant pathway is possible - the carbon budget was used up in .
Table. Pathways of emission cuts. All figures are tonnes CO2 per person
1: Linear Net Zero 2050
Year Residual CO2 budget at start of year CO2 emissions during the year Cumulative CO2 emissions at end of year
202050.08.58.5
202141.58.617.1
202232.98.325.4
202324.68.033.5
202416.57.741.2
20258.87.448.7
20261.37.255.8
2027-5.86.962.7
2028-12.76.669.2
2029-19.26.375.5
2030-25.56.081.4
2031-31.45.787.1
2032-37.15.492.5
2033-42.55.197.5
2034-47.54.8102.3
2035-52.34.5106.8
2036-56.84.2110.9
2037-60.93.9114.8
2038-64.83.6118.4
2039-68.43.3121.7
2040-71.73.0124.6
2041-74.62.7127.3
2042-77.32.4129.7
2043-79.72.1131.8
2044-81.81.8133.6
2045-83.61.5135.1
2046-85.11.2136.3
2047-86.30.9137.2
2048-87.20.6137.7
2049-87.70.3138.0
2050-88.00.0138.0
2051-88.00.0138.0
2052-88.00.0138.0
2053-88.00.0138.0
2054-88.00.0138.0
2055-88.00.0138.0
2056-88.00.0138.0
2057-88.00.0138.0
2058-88.00.0138.0
2059-88.00.0138.0
2060-88.00.0138.0

Notes and sources

Global CO2 budgets
The figures for the global CO2 budget are taken from Table 5.8 (p753) of the AR6 WG1 report produced by the IPCC in 2021 - at report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg1/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf.
Country emissions
For year up to 2020, CO2 emission figures for individual countries are taken from ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capita and ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita (downloaded 9 and 26 Oct 2023).
Figures for 2021 to 2023 are estimated by extrapolating the trend from 2014 to 2019 (except for countries with emissions less than 3 tonnes per person per year where the 10-year trend is used).
Climate deaths
The figures for climate deaths are calculated on the basis of 1 death per 4000 tonnes CO2 emitted - see carbonindependent.org/144.html.
Aviation
Figures are taken from ourworldindata.org/carbon-footprint-flying.
Equity between nations
There is a provision in the Paris Agreement for equity between nations, but this is rarely mentioned in high emission countries - see carbonindependent.org/122.html.
Renewable energy
Data on renewable energy is taken from ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy.
Military emissions
An adjustment for military CO2 emissions is made for each country. This is done on the basis that military emissions are about 5% of the global total (see sgr.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-11/SGR%2BCEOBS-Estimating_Global_MIlitary_GHG_Emissions_Nov22_rev.pdf). Military expenditure by country is taken from ourworldindata.org/grapher/military-expenditure-total?tab=table. This source gives a total global military spend of $1910 billion per annum, which is causing CO2 emissions of 1.85 billion tonnes per year, indicating that on average, 1 tonne of CO2 is emitted per $1000 military spend.
In this calculator, adjustments are added to (or subtracted from) each country's declared emission figures depending on the country's military expenditure compared to the global average military spend.
Greenhouse gas emissions other than CO2
This calculator considers only CO2 emissions, and not other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxides. This is because these other gases are relatively short-lived in the atmosphere, e.g. methane lasts for about a decade, whereas CO2 persists for hundreds or thousands of years.
Charts can be downloaded free of copyright (right-click on the chart).
This web page can be printed out as a factsheet.
Advanced options
Advanced options
No change (a pathway where emissions continue unchange)
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Attribution
The flags came from commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Sovereign-state_flags.
The Infobox icon came from Kontos at https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Infobox_info_icon.svg.
First published 16 Oct 2023
Last updated 30 Nov 2024