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The climate emergency: key points

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The climate situation 2025 Reasons to be very concerned Essential background information Action needed

Essential information

What should have happened? Counting consumption rather than territorial CO2 emissions All sections of society are failing Government failures House of Commons Library reports on climate change are seriously misleading MPs Campaigning failures Zero Hour: Climate urgency denial UKHACC: Climate urgency denial: Correspondence

Action needed

UK carbon budget calculations 2025 Carbon budget calculations for the average country

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Emissions by sector

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Posts in 2023-2024:

Reasons to be very concerned

Key points on the climate emergency

Human activity has changed the climate

The climate has changed: The physics Mankind has changed the climate

Mortality from climate change

Mortality and other costs of climate change

Time is running out

UK carbon budget calculations 2024 The UK's share of the global carbon budget runs out in 2 years The global carbon budget runs out in 7 years

System failures

UN Secretary-General: "Government leaders are lying" The UK Net Zero 2050 strategy would take three times the UK's share of the global carbon budget

Pleas from those most affected

Young people are pleading for action: 10 key messages Greta Thunberg's "blah blah blah" speech, Milan 2021 Pleas from the world's poorest

Action needed

UN Secretary-General: "A grassroots movement that cannot be ignored"

Actions needed

Climate emergency ten-point action plan

1. Overall aim and priority

International commitments given Why 1.5°C? Why climate action is an overriding priority

2. Global strategy: Limit further emissions to 400 billion tonnes CO2

Global strategy: Limit further emissions to 400 billion tonnes CO2

3. Allocation of the global CO2 budget between countries

Allocation of the global CO2 budget between countries
The maths of staying within the UK's carbon budget: Halve emissions every 3 years Double digit percentage annual emission cuts "Zero carbon sooner" CO2 budget report from CUSP

4. Reviewing progress against the CO2 budget

Global emissions are still rising

5. Identifying reasons for lack of progress on climate change

Why progress has been so poor: Summary The UK's Seven Principles of Public Life Decision making has not followed the science It is a system failure rather than a failure of individuals Cognitive biases, flawed reasoning, fallacies and denial dominate opinions and decision making Climate denial: literal, interpretive and implicatory Climate urgency denial Checklist for auditing consistency with the IPCC Auditing consistency with the IPCC: Summary for selected groups

5a. Governments

UK Climate Change Committee: Not consistent with the IPCC UK Government fallacy: overclaiming the reduction in UK CO2 emissions

5b. Media deficiencies

The BBC: Climate denial The Guardian: Climate denial The British Medical Journal: Climate denial

5c. Campaigning deficiencies

Friends of the Earth: Climate denial 1: Court case 2022 Friends of the Earth: Climate denial 2: Response to CCC annual report 2023 Fridays for Future: Consistent with the IPCC Climate Uncensored: Consistent with the IPCC Campaign against Climate Change: Consistent with the IPCC Ethical Consumer Magazine: Climate denial Climate Emergency UK: Climate denial Client Earth: Climate denial Sustrans: Climate denial

6. Improving decision making

Reliable (safe system) decision making and policy making

7. Actions by sector

Specific actions needed: Summary National governments Local government

False solutions to be avoided

'Offsetting' Planting trees Tree planting claims by Zurich scientists were withdrawn Electric vehicles: not an immediate solution

8. Individuals

Individuals Reduce your carbon footprint: at least 10% per year

9. Ensuring good decision making

Challenging fallacies

Common climate fallacies

UK Government

The 'Net Zero 2050' UK Government fallacies

Ethical Consumer: Inconsistency with the IPCC in the Climate Gap reports

Critique of report methodology Correspondence with Ethical Consumer

Civil disobedience

Civil disobedience in a democracy: Q and A

Technicalities

UK average GHG emissions International comparisons

Emissions by sector

"Green electricity" Cars Food Health, education, etc emissions
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Quotes

Quotes

Links

Links

Posts in 2022:

Consistency with the IPCC

Climate urgency fallacies

Action needed

Passivhaus home standards

Challenge fallacies and malpractice

Challenge fallacies, incompetence and malpractice

Ensuring good decision making

Assessing performance on the climate emergency Climate Urgency Realism or Denial score Climate urgency denial in UK Government scientists

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Posts in 2020-2021:

Action needed

'Hydrogen power' is not the answer

Ensuring good decision making

Civil disobedience and the law Extinction Rebellion

Technicalities by sector

Basic UK energy and greenhouse gas statistics References

Posts in 2019:

The climate crisis and what to do about it

Climate change: the basics Simple solutions for the climate crisis, which should have been implemented already

Action needed

Local government: Make walking safe Organisations

Awareness raising

Leaflets, video

Reasons for optimism

Decline in UK domestic aviation Decline of domestic aviation in Sweden

Standards of administration in a democracy

Effective planning

Performance assessments

BEIS is not telling the truth on carbon emissions Transport for the North: Failing on the climate crisis Steve Rotheram: failing on the climate crisis Wirral Council's emission reduction trajectory

Campaigning failures

Individuals and groups who have been advocating action on climate change should all have had a similar message. They should all have

• publicised the climate science
• made clear what people needed to do in order to comply with international commitments and moral obligations
• highlighted government errors

but little of this has happened.

Instead, there has been

• fragmentation of efforts - there are many groups not coordinating their efforts
• inconsistent messaging, contradicting each other and the IPCC
• deliberate self censoring [1]
• repeating of fallacies, e.g. advocating Net Zero dates and gradual decarbonisation.

Example of climate urgency and climate urgency denial

The urgency of the action needed and denial by the UK Government are shown by

• the UK's share of the global CO2 budget will run out in 3 years, at the end of 2024
• annual cuts in emissions of well over 10% are needed to meet the Paris and other agreements
• the UK Government's Net Zero 2050 Strategy would take three times the UK's share of the global CO2 budget

but much UK climate campaigning ignores these crucial points - see document 154.

Conclusion

The end result is that campaigners have understated the urgency of climate action and advocated inadequate policies - and at the same time they have criticised the government and other organisations for doing just this. Campaigners have contributed to the climate denial that is widespread across society.

There is a famous quote from John Stuart Mill [2] that can be paraphrased as

All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good people to look on and do nothing.

Evil is clearly triumphing at present - global CO2 emissions are still rising. Looking at the global efforts to stop climate change, it seems that this quote should be modified to

All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good people to look on and do the wrong thing.

since an examination of the effort being made shows that much of it is unlikely to be effective, and may even be counterproductive.

Campaigning strategies need to be improved, in line with the SGR Climate Oath (see Appendix)

References

[1]	Turning delusion into climate action - Prof Kevin Anderson, an interview (2020) Responsible Science https://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/turning-delusion-climate-action-prof-kevin-anderson-interview

[2]	John Stuart Mill (1867) St Andrew's University address https://www.openculture.com/2016/03/edmund-burkeon-in-action.html (viewed 11 Feb 2022)

[3]	https://www.sgr.org.uk/projects/science-oath-climate-text-and-signing

Appendix: The SGR Climate Oath

Scientists for Global Responsibility have published a Science Oath for the Climate [3].

Science has no higher purpose than to understand and help maintain the conditions for life to thrive on Earth. We may look beyond our planet with wonder and learn, but this is our only viable home.

Our dwelling though is critically threatened by the loss of the stable climate which has allowed humanity to flourish. We pledge to act in whatever ways we are able, in our lives and work, to prevent catastrophic climate disruption.

To translate this pledge into a force for real change, we will:

• explain honestly, clearly and without compromise, what scientific evidence tells us about the seriousness of the climate emergency.
• not second-guess what might seem politically or economically pragmatic when describing the scale and timeframe of action needed to deliver the 1.5°C and 2°C commitments, specified in the Paris Climate Agreement. And, speak out about what is not compatible with the commitments, or is likely to undermine them.
• to the best of our abilities, and mindful of the urgent need for systemic change, seek to align our own behaviour with the climate targets, and reduce our own personal carbon emissions to demonstrate the possibilities for change.

With courtesy and firmness, we will hold our professional associations, institutions and employers to these same standards, and invite our colleagues across the scientific community to sign, act on and share this pledge.

First published: 4 Feb 2022

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