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The climate situation 2025

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global temperature chart
People who care about the world should:
  • be very concerned about climate change:
    • mankind has changed the climate
    • the scale of harm being done makes continued burning of fossil fuels morally indefensible
    • action on climate change has not gone according to plan
    • governments have not acted in line with their commitments to urgent action
    • the global total of CO2 emissions has continued to rise
    • the rise in global temperature is now approaching the 1.5°C limit
    • the climate is deteriorating
    • there is much concern about catastrophic errors in decision making
  • aim to understand:
    • the science of climate change
    • the urgency of action on climate change - the rapidly dwindling carbon budgets
    • what should have happened: agreement of a plan to reduce emissions in line with the climate science and commitments given in the Paris and other agreements - and compliance with that plan
    • what has gone wrong:
      • failures across society: by government scientists, politicians, the media, climate advocacy groups, sceptics, businesses, the legal system, other organisations, and individuals
      • understating the urgency of action, and advocation of inadequate policies - i.e. climate urgency denial
      • fragmentation of climate advocacy leading to chaotic and inconsistent policy proposals
    • what options do we have now: implement organised radical change, or have disorganised radical change forced upon us by a deteriorating climate
  • take action:
    • improve decision making:
      • take steps to avoid optimism bias, overconfidence, groupthink, and denial
      • apply scientific rigour to the policy making process
      • stop advocates of climate action contradicting the IPCC and each other
    • rational collective action across society: urgent radical reduction in emissions across all sectors, a rapidly increasing carbon tax
    • disseminate accurate information
    • take personal action
    • challenge what is out of line with the science.

This web page is a summary of the science on climate policy making, written for people who feel big decisions should be taken on the basis of facts and fairness (or Truth and Justice).
The aim is to give the full truth, and nothing but the truth, even if it is not what is being generally discussed and not what people would like to hear.

People should be very concerned about climate change

Mankind has changed the climate
  • the effects are cumulative and mostly irreversible
  • the scale of harm being done by climate change is horrific: one climate-related death for every 4000 tonnes CO2 emitted, climate refugees, and loss of biodiversity
  • this makes continued burning of fossil fuels morally indefensible

Action on climate change is very urgent but has not gone according to plan:
  • in the
    Paris Agreement,[122]
    countries made commitments to limit global warming to 1.5°C (or at least to well under 2°C), which means phasing out fossil fuels
  • the scientific advice was that these commitments require
    "rapid and far-reaching transitions"[31]
    throughout society
  • governments have acted in line with the promises given - actions are completely at variance with the speed of change needed

The climate has continued to deteriorate
  • total global CO2 emissions are still rising
  • in developed countries, emissions are not falling fast enough
  • the global temperature rise is now close to the 1.5°C limit

Governments cannot be trusted on important questions
  • they have a poor record of decision making
  • in the UK, there is a recurring pattern of wasting billions of pounds on ineffective policies and ignoring effective policies

There is much concern about catastrophic errors in decision making
  • the UN Secretary-General has warned: "Some government and business leaders are saying one thing - but doing another. Simply put, they are lying."
  • climate protesters who are very aware of the situation are very vocal and not deterred by long prison sentences.

People should aim to understand the essential points

The science of climate change
  • the steady rise in global temperature as mankind dumps more CO2 into the atmosphere
  • the unacceptable level of climate deaths, climate refugees, biodiversity loss and sea level rise

The urgency of action on climate change
  • the global
    carbon budget
    for 1.5°C runs out in 2030, and even sooner in developed countries
    e.g. 2025 for the UK
  • this means radical changes in lifestyles for many until renewable alternatives are developed, if temperature targets are to be met

What should have been done by governments and wider society
  • discussion of the implications of the Paris Agreement, agreement of a plan to eliminate fossil fuels, and implementation of the plan

What has actually been done
  • there have been many declarations of a climate emergency, but planning has been of non-emergency policies, and there has been little action

What has gone wrong
  • widespread failure of decision making
  • there has been no general discussion of the imminent exhaustion of the carbon budget - inadequate government timescales dominate discussions and have not been challenged
  • even
    climate campaigners are understating the size and urgency of changes needed, and advocating inadequate policies
  • flawed campaigning seems to be not just misunderstanding but a form of
    climate denial.

What choices do we have now
  • our current lifestyles are unsustainable, so radical change is coming - we can choose to organise radical change, or have disorganised radical change forced upon us
  • whether to continue with inadequate non-emergency policies or treat climate change as the highest priority i.e. as an
    emergency
  • whether to continue with the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or to accept the system has failed and consider a higher limit of e.g. 1.6°C

Read more at carbonindependent.org/184.html

People should take action

Correct the errors in decision making, in advocacy groups and in decision makers in government and across society
  • science-based decision making, i.e. apply scientific rigour to the policy making process
    • accept that decision making is often flawed - due to optimism bias, overconfidence bias, groupthink, denial, etc
    • devise procedures to scrutinise decisions and remove errors
    • stop advocates of climate action contradicting the IPCC and each other, e.g. Friends of the Earth's endorsing of the UK Government's Net Zero 2050 timescale
  • shared decision making (SDM) so that all parts of society are involved

Decide on the speed of change
  • emergency (not routine) action
  • e.g. a pathway to Net Zero 2030

Advocate rational collective action across society
  • reduce fossil fuel use very rapidly, including a massive programme of insulation, ending leisure aviation, much reduced vehicle mileage, and restructuring of the food supply.
  • a rapidly increasing carbon tax.

Disseminate accurate information
  • explain that current affluent lifestyles are unsustainable,and will end one way or another
  • explain the promises made in the Paris Agreement and the choices we have

Take personal action
  • be part of the solution rather than part of the problem
  • reduce fossil fuel use as fast as possible

Challenge what is out of line with the science
  • misinformation - whatever the source
  • inadequate government action.

Read more at carbonindependent.org/185.html


Started: 14 Nov 2024
Last updated: 24 Mar 2025     Page No: 166