✖



The climate situation, at the start of 2025

For more details via infoboxes: hover, click or double-click on any highlighted text

A summary of the science of climate policy making is:
  • action on climate change is not going according to plan
  • governments are not acting in line with their commitments
  • the global total of CO2 emissions is still rising
  • the climate is deteriorating
  • the effects of climate change are cumulative and irreversible
There is an urgent need for honest discussion of the situation:
  • what should have happened
  • what has gone wrong
  • what options do we now have.

People should be very concerned about climate change

Action on climate change is not going according to plan:
  • in the
    Paris Agreement,
    countries made commitments to limit global warming to 1.5°C (or at least to well under 2°C), which means phasing out fossil fuels
  • the scientific advice was that these commitments require
    "rapid and far-reaching transitions"
    throughout society
  • the urgency of action is given by the global
    carbon budget
    for 1.5°C running out in 2030, and even sooner in developed countries e.g. 2026 for the UK
  • this means radical changes in lifestyles for many until renewable alternatives are developed
  • the climate has changed particularly rapidly in the last few years suggesting that even more urgent change is needed.
But the climate is continuing to deteriorate
  • total global CO2 emissions are still rising
  • in developed countries, emissions are not falling fast enough
  • the global temperature rise is close to 1.5°C
There is a widespread failure of decision making
  • government actions are completely at variance with the speed of change needed, e.g. in the UK, the Labour Government has recently
    • committed billions of pounds to unproven technology that will not make a difference for many years, if ever
    • kept fuel duty unchanged
  • there is no general discussion of the imminent exhaustion of the carbon budget - inadequate government timescales dominate discussions and are not being challenged
  • even
    climate campaigners are understating the size and urgency of changes needed, and advocating inadequate policies
  • the flawed campaigning seems to be not just misunderstanding but a form of
    climate denial.

There is an urgent need for honest discussion of the options based on the science.

Some important questions that need discussion are
  • What should have happened?
  • What has gone wrong?
  • What priority should be given to climate action? - the highest priority i.e. emergency action
  • What target for climate action should be adopted? - 1.5°C, 1.6°C
  • What is the physics underlying this climate target?
  • How does this climate target convert into action on emissions?
  • What should have been done and what has been done by governments?
  • What are the reasons for any gap in action?
  • What plan should be developed bearing in mind current deficiencies in action?


Started: 14 Nov 2024
Last updated: 20 Jan 2025     Page No: 166