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The climate emergency 2026
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- Mankind has changed the climate.
- Enormous harm has already been done.
- Continued use of fossil fuels is dangerous and morally indefensible - those most affected are the least responsible.
- Action on climate change has not been in line with government commitments to radical action.
- The global total of CO2 emissions has continued to rise.
- The rise in global temperature is now approaching the 1.5°C limit.
- Extreme weather events are increasing, and the risks of catastrophic tipping points are steadily increasing. Time is running out.
- the science of climate change
- the urgency of action on climate change - the rapidly dwindling carbon budgets
- what should have happened: agreement of a plan to eliminate fossil fuels in line with the climate science and international climate agreements - and compliance with that plan
- what has gone wrong, why policy making has been so poor:
- the urgency of action has been understated, inadequate policies have been advocated (i.e. climate urgency denial), exacerbated by groupthink and other cognitive biases
- the failures have been across society: by government scientists, politicians, the media, climate campaigners, climate sceptics, businesses, the legal system, and individuals
- climate advocacy has been fragmented and chaotic, with inconsistent policy proposals
- the options that people have now: implement organised radical change, or have disorganised radical change forced upon them by a deteriorating climate.
- Decide on the overall aim and priority: Limit global warming to 1.5°C / 1.6°C - and make it the highest priority for civilised societies.
- Decide on the global strategy: Limit further CO2 emissions to 500 / 650 billion tonnes CO2.
- Decide how to allocate the residual CO2 budget between nations: On the basis of equity.
- Assess progress so far: Minimal or poor.
- Identify the reasons for lack of progress: Poor decision making throughout society.
- Improve decision making: Face up to the seriousness; avoid denial and biases.
- Plan the necessary actions: Radical cuts in emissions in rich countries, to zero in 2030 / 2035, by a rapidly increasing carbon tax, ending of most private car journeys, closure of airports etc.
- Take personal action: Radical cuts in emissions if high personal GHG emissions.
- Ensure good decision making: Challenge fallacies, incompetence and malpractice.
- Disseminate accurate information, even if it is unexpected and initially unwelcome.
1. Why climate change is such a concern
Mankind has changed the climate- Average temperatures have increased, and there are more storms, floods, heatwaves and wildfires.
- Sea levels are rising.
- The effects are cumulative and irreversible with current technology.
The effects on life on earth are already severe
The harm being done includes
- climate deaths - e.g. each year's CO2 emissions from the UK will result in around 150,000 climate deaths
- climate refugees
- loss of biodiversity, e.g. coral reef blanching
- sea levels are rising and the more CO2 that is added to the atmosphere, the faster sea levels will rise.
Continued use of fossil fuels is dangerous, unsustainable and morally indefensible
- One way or another, large scale use of fossil fuels will end.
Urgent radical climate action was agreed, but has not happened as promised
- In the Paris Agreement, countries made commitments to limit global warming to well under 2°C (often taken to mean 1.7°C), and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
- This meant rapidly ending the use of fossil fuels, halving global CO2 emissions by 2030, with faster emission cuts in developed countries.
- These commitments required "rapid and far-reaching transitions"throughout society.
- But governments and wider society have not acted in line with the promises given - actions have been completely at variance with the speed of change needed.
The climate has continued to deteriorate
- The global total of CO2 emissions has continued to rise.
- In developed countries, emissions have not fallen in line with promises made.
- The global temperature rise (longer term average) reached around 1.3°C in 2024 - and at its current rate will reach 1.5°C in 2030, and 1.7°C in 2036.
- Extreme weather events are increasing.
- The risks of catastrophic tipping points are steadily increasing.
Governments cannot be relied on in crucial decisions
- Governments have poor records of decision making on important topics.
- In the UK, there is a recurring pattern of wasting billions of pounds on ineffective policies and ignoring effective solutions.
- The UN Secretary-General has warned: "Some government and business leaders are saying one thing - but doing another. Simply put, they are lying."
- Despite the global temperature rise being likely to reach the Paris agreed limit of 1.5°C in 2030, governments continue to talk about Net Zero 2050 as if this is an acceptable timescale.
See Document 183: Why climate change is such a concern for details and sources.
2. The key points on climate change
The science of climate change
- Just over half of the CO2 added to the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels stays in the atmosphere.
- So, since the mid-1800's, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has steadily increased (see chart).
- The CO2 in the atmosphere retains heat.
- So, as more and more CO2 has been added to the atmosphere, global temperatures have steadily increased.
- As well as the increased temperatures, there are more storms, floods, heatwaves and wildfires, sea levels are rising, and tipping points are nearing.
- These are causing unsustainable and unacceptable levels of climate deaths, climate refugees, and damage to nature.
The urgency of action on climate change
- The urgency of climate action is given by the commitment in the Paris Agreement to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
- This limit to global warming means there is a limit to how much more CO2 can be added to the atmosphere (the carbon budget).
- The global carbon budgetfor 1.5°C runs out in 2033 (possibly earlier), and even sooner in developed countries, e.g. the UK's fair carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C runs out in 2027 - see document 195.
- This means radical changes in lifestyles for many until renewable alternatives are developed, if temperature targets are to be met.
What should have been done by governments and wider society
There should have been agreement on a plan to rapidly eliminate fossil fuels in line with the climate science and the commitments given in the Paris and other agreements - and effective implementation of that plan.
What has actually been done
There have been many declarations of a climate emergency, but planning has been of non-emergency policies, and there has been little action. The global total of CO2 emissions, which should have been falling rapidly, has continued to increase.
What has gone wrong, why policy making has been so poor
It is crucial to understand what has gone wrong, so that mistakes are not repeated.
- There has been no general discussion of the extreme urgency from the dwindling carbon budget and the implications of radical change e.g. the closure of most airports within a few months.
- Instead, inadequate government timescales (such as Net Zero 2050) have dominated discussions and have been little challenged - with inadequate policies being advocated and planned.
- This seems to be not just misunderstandings but a form of climate denial, termed implicatory climate denial - exacerbated by wishful thinking, groupthink, overconfidence and other cognitive biases, and pseudoscience.
- There has been a general failure across society: by government scientists, politicians, the media, climate campaigners, climate sceptics, businesses, other organisations, and individuals.
What are the choices now:
- current lifestyles are unsustainable, so radical change is coming one way or another - people can choose to organise radical change, or have disorganised radical change forced upon them by a deteriorating climate
- whether to continue with inadequate non-emergency policies or face up to the situation and treat climate change as the highest priority i.e. as an emergency
- whether to continue with the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or to accept that the system has failed and consider a higher limit of e.g. 1.6°C.
See Document 184: Key climate information for details and sources.
3. Action needed: a 10-point plan:
The United Nations Secretary-General has warned that government action on the climate emergency is inadequate and has called for "a grassroots movement that cannot be ignored".The following 10-point plan outlines how such a grassroots movement should act, based on the scientific consensus on climate change, and on international commitments.
1. Decide on the overall aim and priority
Limit global warming to 1.5°C (if possible) or 1.6°C (if necessary) - and make it the highest priority for civilised societies.
2. Decide on the global strategy
Limit further CO2 emissions to 500 billion tonnes CO2 for 1.5°C or 650 billion tonnes CO2 for 1.6°C.
3. Decide how to allocate the residual CO2 budget between nations
On the basis of equity.
4. Assess progress so far
Minimal or poor - see above.
5. Identify the reasons for lack of progress
Poor decision making throughout society - see above.
6. Improve decision making
- Face up to the seriousness of the situation, and have an honest discussion of the options.
- Avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.
- Apply scientific rigour to the policy making process, including taking steps to avoid wishful thinking, overconfidence, groupthink, and denial.
- Recognise that the task is ending fossil fuels by reducing total energy use by lifestyle change, not merely decarbonisation without causing any inconvenience.
7. Plan the necessary actions
Radical cuts in emissions in rich countries, to zero in 2030 / 2035, by a rapidly increasing carbon tax, a mass programme of insulation, replacement of most private car journeys by walking, cycling or public transport, closure of airports, and a diet with mush less meat and dairy products.
8. Take personal action
Radical cuts in emissions if high personal greenhouse gas emissions.
9. Ensure good decision making
Challenge fallacies, incompetence and malpractice.
10. Disseminate accurate information
- Accurate information is essential, even if it is unexpected and initially unwelcome.
- Answer genuine objections.
See Document 57: Climate emergency 10-point action plan for details and sources.
Started: 14 Nov 2024