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Global strategy: Limit further emissions to 400 billion tonnes CO2
Once a decision is made to plan to limit global warming to 1.5°C (or any other limit), a question arises as to what the science says about how this can be achieved.
The answer is to limit CO2 emissions to a total limit.
It is not to set a net zero date.
The answer is to limit CO2 emissions to a total limit.
It is not to set a net zero date.
Once a decision is made to plan to limit global warming to 1.5°C (or any other limit), a question immediately arises as to what the scientific consensus says about how this can be achieved.
The relevant physics is tha as CO2 is added to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels, most of it stays there so the concentration steadily rises. As the concentration of CO2 rises, the average global temperture steadily rises.
So to limit global warming to any particutar figure, total global CO2 emissions have to be limited to an overall total, which can be calculated from the known global warming effect of CO2. These caculations are published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The answer is not to set a net zero date. Net zero dates do not matter; what matters is the total cumulative emissions by the net zero date.
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, further global emissions of CO2 need to be limited to a total 400 billion tonnes CO2 from Jan 2020, as explained in the 2021 IPCC AR6 report (see document 54). (The production in 2018 was 34 billion tonnes CO2.)
First published: 5 Sep 2023
Last updated: 6 Sep 2023