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Essential background information

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As climate change is a matter of such great concern, people should aim to understand the essential points:
The science of climate change
  • the steady rise in global temperature as mankind dumps more CO2 into the atmosphere
  • the unacceptable level of climate deaths, climate refugees, biodiversity loss and sea level rise
The urgency of action on climate change
  • the global
    carbon budget
    for 1.5°C runs out in 2030, and even sooner in developed countries
    e.g. 2025 for the UK
  • this means radical changes in lifestyles for many until renewable alternatives are developed, if temperature targets are to be met
What should have been done by governments and wider society
  • discussion of the implications of the Paris Agreement, agreement of a plan to eliminate fossil fuels, and implementation of the plan
What has actually been done
  • there have been many declarations of a climate emergency, but planning has been of non-emergency policies, and there has been little action
What has gone wrong
  • widespread failure of decision making
  • there has been no general discussion of the imminent exhaustion of the carbon budget - inadequate government timescales dominate discussions and have not been challenged
  • even
    climate campaigners are understating the size and urgency of changes needed, and advocating inadequate policies
  • flawed campaigning seems to be not just misunderstanding but a form of
    climate denial
    termed implicatory denial by psychologists.
What choices do we have now
  • our current lifestyles are unsustainable, so radical change is coming - we can choose to organise radical change, or have disorganised radical change forced upon us
  • whether to continue with inadequate non-emergency policies or treat climate change as the highest priority i.e. as an
    emergency
  • whether to continue with the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or to accept the system has failed and consider a higher limit of e.g. 1.6°C

As climate change is a matter of such great concern, people should aim to understand the essential points:

The science of climate change

  • the steady rise in global temperature as mankind dumps more CO2 into the atmosphere
  • an unacceptable level of climate deaths, climate refugees, biodiversity loss and sea level rise
  • the dangers of uncontrolled climate change

The urgency of action on climate change

  • the urgency of action is given by the global
    carbon budget
    for 1.5°C running out in 2030, and even sooner in developed countries
    e.g. 2025 for the UK
  • this means radical changes in lifestyles for many until renewable alternatives are developed, if temperature targets are to be met
  • the climate has changed particularly rapidly in the last few years suggesting that even more urgent change is needed.

What should have been done by governments and wider society

There should have been a discussion of the implications of the Paris Agreement, agreement of a plan to eliminate fossil fuels, and implementation of the plan.
A strategy should have been devised with the following key elements
  • an assessment of the degree of urgency of action: leading to a decision of emergency (not routine) action
  • a decision on the main objective: deciding on a limit to global warming of 1.5°C
  • an understanding of the science of achieving this objective: staying within the appropriate carbon budget
  • including the commitment in the Paris Agreement to equity between nations
  • using a fair accounting system: including all CO2 emissions
  • stating clearly the required speed of change: double digit percentage annual emission cuts
  • detailing credibly compliant policies
  • quality control measures should have worked, e.g. avoiding false solutions.
See more at carbonindependent.org/100.html.

What has actually been done

There have been many declarations of a climate emergency, but
  • there has been no general discussion of the imminent exhaustion of the carbon budget - inadequate government timescales dominate discussions and have not been challenged
  • there has been no competent plan - planning has been of non-emergency policies
  • there has been little action

What has gone wrong

Clearly, governments have made wrong decisions, but it is important to consider why. Have the changes that are needed been deliberately obstructed by billionaires and other rich people, or have governments deliberately ignored the case for change? While these may have happened, there is another phenomenon that must be considered - that climate advocacy groups have failed to explore and explain what needs to be done - that the failure is a failure across society.
Even
climate campaigners are understating the size and urgency of changes needed, and advocating inadequate policies

Flawed campaigning seems to be not just misunderstanding but a form of
climate denial.

People are fallible - what appears obvious to someone can be incorrect - as in the illusion
The squares labelled A and B are actually the same shade of grey!
- resulting in widespread failure of decision making
It seems that decisions are flawed because of
  • ignorance
  • arrogance/overconfidence and other cognitive biases
  • self-interest
  • lack of accountability

What choices do we have now

  • our current lifestyles are unsustainable, so radical change is coming - we can choose to organise radical change, or have disorganised radical change forced upon us
  • whether to continue with inadequate non-emergency policies or treat climate change as the highest priority i.e. as an
    emergency
  • What target for climate action should be adopted
    • the Paris Agreement commitment was to limit global warming to 1.5°C or at least well under 2.0°C - the target has been 1.5°C, but the fair UK carbon budget for 1.5°C runs out in 2025 - there is a choice of whether to continue with the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or to accept that the system has failed and consider a higher limit of e.g. 1.6°C

References

[1]Edward H. Adelson: Checker shadow illusion https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/File:Checker_shadow_illusion.svg


First published: 13 Feb 2025
Last updated: 23 Mar 2025     Page No: 184