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The climate situation 2025 Reasons to be very concerned Essential background information Action needed

Essential information

What should have happened? Counting consumption rather than territorial CO2 emissions All sections of society are failing Government failures House of Commons Library: Seriously misleading reports Campaigning failures Zero Hour: Climate urgency denial UKHACC: Climate urgency denial: Correspondence

Action needed

UK carbon budget calculations 2025 Carbon budget calculations for the average country

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Emissions by sector

Home energy Bus travel Aviation
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Posts in 2023-2024:

Reasons to be very concerned

Key points on the climate emergency

Human activity has changed the climate

The climate has changed: The physics Mankind has changed the climate

Mortality from climate change

Mortality and other costs of climate change

Time is running out

UK carbon budget calculations 2024 The UK's share of the global carbon budget runs out in 2 years The global carbon budget runs out in 7 years

System failures

UN Secretary-General: "Government leaders are lying" The UK Net Zero 2050 strategy would take three times the UK's share of the global carbon budget

Pleas from those most affected

Young people are pleading for action: 10 key messages Greta Thunberg's "blah blah blah" speech, Milan 2021 Pleas from the world's poorest

Action needed

UN Secretary-General: "A grassroots movement that cannot be ignored"

Actions needed

Climate emergency ten-point action plan

1. Overall aim and priority

International commitments given Why 1.5°C? Why climate action is an overriding priority

2. Global strategy: Limit further emissions to 400 billion tonnes CO2

Global strategy: Limit further emissions to 400 billion tonnes CO2

3. Allocation of the global CO2 budget between countries

Allocation of the global CO2 budget between countries
The maths of staying within the UK's carbon budget: Halve emissions every 3 years Double digit percentage annual emission cuts "Zero carbon sooner" CO2 budget report from CUSP

4. Reviewing progress against the CO2 budget

Global emissions are still rising

5. Identifying reasons for lack of progress on climate change

Why progress has been so poor: Summary The UK's Seven Principles of Public Life Decision making has not followed the science It is a system failure rather than a failure of individuals Cognitive biases, flawed reasoning, fallacies and denial dominate opinions and decision making Climate denial: literal, interpretive and implicatory Climate urgency denial Checklist for auditing consistency with the IPCC Auditing consistency with the IPCC: Summary for selected groups

5a. Governments

UK Climate Change Committee: Not consistent with the IPCC UK Government fallacy: overclaiming the reduction in UK CO2 emissions

5b. Media deficiencies

The BBC: Climate denial The Guardian: Climate denial The British Medical Journal: Climate denial

5c. Campaigning deficiencies

Friends of the Earth: Climate denial 1: Court case 2022 Friends of the Earth: Climate denial 2: Response to CCC annual report 2023 Fridays for Future: Consistent with the IPCC Climate Uncensored: Consistent with the IPCC Campaign against Climate Change: Consistent with the IPCC Ethical Consumer Magazine: Climate denial Climate Emergency UK: Climate denial Client Earth: Climate denial Sustrans: Climate denial

6. Improving decision making

Reliable (safe system) decision making and policy making

7. Actions by sector

Specific actions needed: Summary National governments Local government

False solutions to be avoided

'Offsetting' Planting trees Tree planting claims by Zurich scientists were withdrawn Electric vehicles: not an immediate solution

8. Individuals

Individuals Reduce your carbon footprint: at least 10% per year

9. Ensuring good decision making

Challenging fallacies

Common climate fallacies

UK Government

The 'Net Zero 2050' UK Government fallacies

Ethical Consumer: Inconsistency with the IPCC in the Climate Gap reports

Critique of report methodology Correspondence with Ethical Consumer

Civil disobedience

Civil disobedience in a democracy: Q and A

Technicalities

UK average GHG emissions International comparisons

Emissions by sector

"Green electricity" Cars Food Health, education, etc emissions Train travel
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Posts in 2022:

Consistency with the IPCC

Climate urgency fallacies

Action needed

Passivhaus home standards

Challenge fallacies and malpractice

Challenge fallacies, incompetence and malpractice

Ensuring good decision making

Assessing performance on the climate emergency Climate Urgency Realism or Denial score Climate urgency denial in UK Government scientists

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Posts in 2020-2021:

Action needed

'Hydrogen power' is not the answer

Ensuring good decision making

Civil disobedience and the law Extinction Rebellion

Technicalities by sector

Basic UK energy and greenhouse gas statistics References

Posts in 2019:

The climate crisis and what to do about it

Climate change: the basics Simple solutions for the climate crisis, which should have been implemented already

Action needed

Local government: Make walking safe Organisations

Awareness raising

Leaflets, video

Reasons for optimism

Decline in UK domestic aviation Decline of domestic aviation in Sweden

Standards of administration in a democracy

Effective planning

Performance assessments

BEIS is not telling the truth on carbon emissions Transport for the North: Failing on the climate crisis Steve Rotheram: failing on the climate crisis Wirral Council's emission reduction trajectory

House of Commons Library: Seriously misleading climate reports

The UK House of Commons Library [1] produces reports on a range of topics, including climate change. According to the Library's editorial policy (see Appendix), the reports aim to provide "impartial analysis and statistical research to help MPs and their staff scrutinise legislation and develop policy", and "often include a variety of views and sources to help MPs understand the range of opinions".

Recent climate change reports (all published in 2025) include

• What are carbon budgets? [2]
• The Climate and Nature Bill 2024-25 [3]
• Aviation and climate change [4]

Assessment

The climate change reports are seriously misleading through omitting some vitally important information, including

• climate change requires emergency action, not routine action, if the UK is to comply with its commitments
• the criticisms of the UK Government's Net Zero 2050 strategy made by campaigners
• the criticisms of governments made by the UN Secretary-General and his support for climate activists.

Why climate change requires emergency action, not routine action
It is because of

• the UK's commitment to the Paris Agreement, and the implications of the climate physics
• the small size of the residual global carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C
• the speed at which it is being depleted
• the UK's commitment to equity between nations
• how soon the UK's fair carbon budget for 1.5°C runs out - this is in 2025 according to carbon budget calculations e,g, by UK academics (see chart) and others [5]

• the Declaration of a Climate Emergency by the UK Parliament [6]
• statements by the IPCC and the UN Secretary-General e.g.
• "unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach" [7]
• "Today’s IPCC Working Group 1 Report is a code red for humanity" [8]
• "This is a climate emergency" [9]
• the moral obligation for for UK to keep its promises to those most affected by climate change.

Criticisms of the UK Government's Net Zero 2050 strategy made by campaigners
The UK Government's Net Zero 2050 strategy is much criticised for

• its omission of emissions generated in the production of goods that the UK imports
• ignoring the commitment to equity between nations in the Paris Agreement, which is usually taken to mean an equal per-capita shares of the global carbon budget - this would result is the UK taking several times its share of the global carbon budget, often referred to a carbon colonialism.

Criticisms of governments and support for climate activists by the UN Secretary-General

• "Some government and business leaders are saying one thing — but doing another. Simply put, they are lying." [9]
• "We owe a debt to young people, civil society and indigenous communities for sounding the alarm and holding leaders accountable." [9]
• "Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals. But the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels." [9]

Conclusions

The UK House of Commons Library reports are incomplete in focusing on the UK Government's policies, without explaining the criticisms that are being made, so that MPs can decide for themselves whether the policies are appropriate, and whether protests are justified.

The reports are contributing the widespread climate denial across society.

The reports are in breach of the House of Commons Library's editorial policy.

The Library reports on climate change need to be corrected.

References

[1]	House of Commons Library https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/

[2]	What are carbon budgets? (Feb 2025) https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/what-are-carbon-budgets/ (accessed 7 Mar 2025)

[3]	The Climate and Nature Bill 2024-25 (Feb 2025) https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10176/ (accessed 7 Mar 2025)

[4]	Aviation and climate change (Mar 2025) https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8826/ (accessed 8 Mar 2025)

[5]	UK carbon budget calculations 2025 https://www.carbonindependent.org/177.html

[6]	UK Parliament declares climate change emergency (May 2019) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48126677

[7]	IPCC (Aug 2021) https://un-spbf.org/event/ipcc-press-release-climate-action-cannot-wait/ at the launch of the report of the IPCC Working Group 1: the Physical Science Basis of the Sixth Assessment (AR6 WG1)

[8]	Antonio Guterres (9 Aug 2021) https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2021-08-09/secretary-generals-statement-the-ipcc-working-group-1-report-the-physical-science-basis-of-the-sixth-assessment

[9]

Antonio Guterres (Apr 2022) Statement at the launch of a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (from the Working Group 3) https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2022-04-04/secretary-generals-video-message-the-launch-of-the-third-ipcc-report-scroll-down-for-languages

[10]	House of Commons Library: Editorial Policy (undated) https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/editorial-policy/ (accessed 5 Mar 2025)

Appendix

The House of Commons Library has an editorial policy [10]. This includes

"The House of Commons Library is a research and information service based in the UK Parliament. We publish impartial analysis and statistical research to help MPs and their staff scrutinise legislation, develop policy, and support constituents. We work for MPs of all parties.

"We strive for accuracy and impartiality. Our publications are informed by evidence, our knowledge of the topics we cover and relevant sources. When covering politically controversial topics we often include a variety of views and sources to help MPs understand the range of opinions. These do not reflect the views of the authors or the House of Commons Library."

First published: 4 Mar 2025

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